The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.
Chinese Proverb
According to a 2016 poll by the surveying website YouGov, only 4% of Brits and 6% of Americans believe that the world is actually getting better, and it is easy to see why this may be with incessant news stories about wars, genocide, acts of global terrorism and our favourite; brexit.
However, now is, statistically, the best time to be alive. The economic globalisation lecturer and author Johan Norberg writes in his book “Progress” that humans are actually more safe, wealthier, healthier, more free, less hungry, and more literate than ever before, contrary to popular belief. The reason that so many believe this is not the case can be attributed to the increasing focus of the media on famine, natural disaster and murder, and our ever increasing ability to share this news via social media and 24-hour news channels.
“Now we can see what is happening live, we don’t know how things will end. ” he adds. “That triggers our fight or flight instincts — it gives us the sense that everything is falling apart in the world right now.”
Norberg goes on to explain how this sense of impending doom is in fact misplaced.
The number of people going hungry in the 18th century was so high that 20% of people from England and France were unable to work due to malnourishment. However, this lack of food is rapidly falling; in 1992, 19% of the world’s population was undernourished, but this fell to 11% in 2016.
The amount of people with access to clean water is over 90% of the world’s population.
Whilst in 1900 the worldwide life expectancy was just 31, this has been exponentially increasing, reaching 71 in 2016. Despite all the news articles about increases in knife crime in London and acts of terrorism occurring throughout the world, the likelihood of a violent death is now lower than it has ever been, and childhood mortality has plummeted. The murder rate in Europe has dropped from a peak of more than 40 per 100,000 people in the 14th century, to one per 100,000 today.
There have been striking successes in the fight against global poverty: in 1981 nearly half of people living in the developing world lived below the poverty line; in 2012 this figure had dropped to 12.7%.
Literacy has also skyrocketed, which many attribute to the growing use of social media and the importance of reading and writing in everyday life: the amount of people who are able to read and write was 21% in 1900 to 86% in 2015.
And we’re getting smarter! The companies that set IQ tests have to adjust their scores periodically, such that the the average person in the population will have a score of 100. However, the average person now would have had an IQ of 118 if they took a test in 1950, and 130 if they’d taken one in 1910, putting them in the top 2% of the population. And an average person from 1950 taking the test today would have a score which would put them “at the border of mental retardation”, according to academic Steven Pinker.
Many speak of our growing population with a sense of anxiety about the lack of resources and housing available to future generations – but the population isn’t growing at such a rate as we think it is, with women having, on average, 2.5 children, whereas this number was 4.5 in 1960; and this isn’t just in the first world either, these numbers are worldwide.
We live in the freest, most equal world yet. “We do complain about bigotry when it’s out there but that’s because we are most sensitive to it,” Norberg said. “One of the reasons we are so sensitive to it now is because it is no longer generally acceptable.”
The rights of ethnic minorities, women, homosexuals, and transgender people were almost unheard of in even the freest western democracies 100 years ago, Norberg argues. For example, in 1900, only New Zealand gave women the right to vote. Of course, there is still a long way to go for true equality, but the rate at which minorities have made progress so far cannot be overlooked, and it’s very likely that positive change will continue at the increasing rate that it has so far.
In “The Moral Arc”, published by Michael Shermer in 2015, it transpires that more than 180 countries now give women the vote in democratic elections.
And the world is looking even brighter for future generations. The rate of child labour dropped from 245 million in 2000 to 168 million in 2012, and has continued to decrease since.
So the world isn’t nearly as dark as it seems. Whilst bad things are happening in the world, they are happening at an ever decreasing rate, and it is important, says Norberg, that we understand that the world is actually changing for the better in order to continue on this golden-age path we are on rather than to think that the world is collapsing around us and to act accordingly.
As the Greek philosopher Heraclitus has often been quoted, “The only constant is change.” I hope that we can continue to change for the better.
References:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/lifestyle/articles-reports/2016/01/05/chinese-people-are-most-optimistic-world
https://www.businessinsider.com/10-reasons-2016-is-the-best-time-to-be-alive-2016-8?r=US&IR=T#only-around-10-of-15-17-year-olds-work-20
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160928-why-the-present-day-could-be-the-best-time-to-be-alive
https://www.buzzfeed.com/tomchivers/why-this-is-the-best-ever-time-to-be-a-human